How To Massively Improve Your Odds Of Making Good Decisions
After the controversy of my last post ‘This Was An Interview With Robin Sharma‘, it’s time to get things back on track round here today with some serious Life Coach type stuff.
I’m pretty sure you get strong gut feelings or intuitions from time to time. A sense from deep within that a decision you’re about to make is either right or wrong.
I’m equally sure that you override that feeling at least occasionally, and then wonder what the hell they were thinking of afterward and berate yourself accordingly.
But you really shouldn’t be tough on yourself because it’s not your fault. It’s actually your prefrontal cortex getting involved in something, that’s quite frankly, none of its damn business.
The rest of your brain is a beautiful and highly efficient thing. It has evolved over thousands of years and knows a thing or two about life. Your prefrontal cortex, not so much.
I recently heard a brilliant analogy that will give you a clear idea of the difference between your conscious and unconscious mind.
If you think of your conscious mind as being the change in your pocket, and your unconscious as the wealth of the US economy (before the financial collapse), you get a fairly accurate idea of the imbalance of power between the two parts of your brain.
Your unconscious mind can literally be doing hundreds of things at once. Whereas your prefrontal context or conscious mind gets all stressed and whiny if you ask it to do just two things at once.
Note: If you want to know more about that and why multi-tasking is a myth, check out my post Cannabis Is Better For You Than Multi-Tasking.
What happens prior to you having a strong gut instinct is your unconscious mind moves into rapid cognition. It does a load of nifty calculations, weighs up the odds of success versus failure and then sends you the appropriate signal.
It then sits back relaxed in the knowledge it did its job and now it’s down to you to use the information wisely.
You’re A Super-Computer!
Unfortunately, even though it has massive computational power, your brain is also a bit like one of those huge old super-computers from the 1970‘s. You have to know what the data it spits out means because it can often be open to interpretation
A gut feeling really can be a gut feeling, or it can literally be a stomach ache brought on by eating a dodgy chili at the hole-in-a-wall Mexican the previous night. And that’s partly the reason so many people don’t trust their gut as much as they could do.
The other reason is some people struggle to know the difference between a gut feeling and wussing out from a tough decision.
You’re chattering away to yourself like a demented Gibbon 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
If you doubt that, close your eyes for a moment and focus all your attention on your breath. Unless you’re an experienced meditator my money says you can’t go 5 seconds without a thought (and thoughts are language) popping into your mind.
That’s not a problem though, it’s just what your mind does to get you through the day, and anyway, we’re all as nuts as each other when it comes to self talk.
However, an internal conversation is not the same thing as a gut feeling. The reason being is that gut feelings don’t usually come in the form of spoken language, they are almost always kinesthetic, or at least start kinesthetically.
The following internal conversations are almost certainly not gut feelings
- Don’t ask for a pay rise you idiot you’ll probably get fired
- If you do that a parachute jump you’ll probably die a very splattery death
- That girl probably has a huge boyfriend that will kick the shit out of you if you ask her to dance
They are conversations stemming from your wussy conscious mind that’s getting all fearful about being dragged out of its comfort zone and it’s trying to con you into thinking you’re about to make a bad decision.
How Do I Spot A Gut Feeling?
My guess is that unless you are very academic and left brained, you’re already way better at spotting them than you give yourself credit for. You may ignore them because of the reasons I just explained, but that’s not the same thing as not spotting them.
If you’re a very analytical and/or academic person, it’s a very different matter altogether though. What’s likely to happen is that when you get the feeling you will bury it under a shit storm of logic that makes sense at a conscious level, because that’s what you’ve trained yourself to do.
Sometimes you luck out and your conscious analysis aligns with your intuition and you get to make the right decision. However, when it doesn’t you will find it incredibly difficult to ignore your conscious mind. It can be done, but you’ll really have to work at it.
Whether you’re left brained, right brained or lame brained, what I want you to do now is to think of a handful of occasions in which you had a strong gut feeling that turned out to be correct
Now I want you to look for common denominators.
- Where did the feeling emanate from?
- What type of feeling was it?
- How long did it last?
- Was it constant or did it ebb and flow?
- Was it a slow awareness or did it hit you like a freight train?
The more information you gather at this stage the better equipped you’ll be to spot the next gut instinct you have because they have a strong tendency to replicate one another.
If you can’t remember in any detail that’s cool, because you get to track your gut feelings from here on in and really get a glimpse into your own psyche and what makes you tick.
Once you have as many details as possible, you’re ready to spot your next gut instinct, but you really do have to pay attention.
When you get that sense that somethings either right or wrong, see if it measures up to previous occasions. And if it does, go with it!
Your intuition can be wrong. Indeed it will be wrong from time to time. However, it’s wrong a lot less often than your conscious mind so sticking with it is simply stacking the odds in your favor and that’s never a bad thing.
I’m, keen to know whether you have strong gut instincts, and more importantly, if you do, do you listen to them?
Note: If you want to know more about rapid cognition and how your brain works, the two best books I’ve ever read on the topics are ‘Blink’ by Malcolm Gladwell and ‘Your Brain At Work’ by David Rock. (AL)
Note 2: I used the terms conscious mind and prefrontal cortex as though they are one and the same. That isn’t technically true, but they are close enough to make the point.


Thanks for the insight on how to tell what a true gut feeling is.
I often step on the line between paranoia and gut feeling so this was very useful.
Gut feelings saved my college GPA, I’m sure it can do more for me post college as well.
I’m sure too Bryce, stick with it!
You’re on the money here Tim. How many times have we said AFTER a situation or problem, “I knew that, I wish I’d trusted my instincts’ and then we go and repeat it again and again? We’ve got to have guts, the type we connect with and trust far more. It’s the sense-able thing to do!
Yep, I know for sure I have done that many times and also a handful of times with clients.
In my early days I took a few clients on that I knew weren’t right for me and every single time it ended up being a frustrating experience. Now I run a mile when I get *that* feeling.
At times I suspect the so-called unconscious is far more conscious than I’m led to believe.
Ever go for a run and try to worry at the same time…
That’s a combination of a lot of things Mark, but you’re right it shuts the conscious mind up quite well. But it also starts bathing the brain in lovely happiness inducing endorphins that make us feel good.
Hi mate. Thanks a lot for this. As a left-brainer, this is something I’ve struggled with a lot. I’ll let you know how I get on applying your tips.
I often get gut instincts playing poker, there’s a lot of variables to keep track of! I’ve definitely had a few occasions where my gut told me to fold but my conscious mind said,”Fuck It” and I’ve ended up poorer!
Poker is a classic example of needing intra-personal skills to succeed which is what we’re talking about Rob. So if you can map over those skills into the rest of your life you’re good to go.
BTW, have you read the section in How To Be Rich and Happy that talked about the Iowa Gambling Test yet? Now THAT is mind blowing when it comes to the abilities we really have.
I’ve just gone back and re-read it. I’ve also forwarded it on to a professional poker player friend of mine. Yeah, that is really really interesting. I’m intrigued about learning how to tap into my own physiological responses.
You need a hammer and a chisel Rob.
Place the chisel against your head (anywhere will do) and then hit said chisel hard with said hammer several times until you fall over.
Hey presto you will have literally tapped into your intuition.
Let me know how you get on.
Hi Tim,
Wow.Go with Gut I say. Illuminating post Tim, thank you. I don’t honestly know how “intuitive” I am. However I usually get a “sense” about things/people which has often been right for me. I think we all have the intuitive in us but tend to dismiss it. Maybe that’s the logical that’s been programmed in us.
be good to yourself
David
I think your sense is your gut mate! Sounds like you’re better at this than you may imagine.
I apologize for not having a substantial comment to add to this, but I wanted to take the time to thank you for this post. It’s started some thought processes on the subject I’ve never put toward it before. I’ll keep it in mind the next time I have that feeling and start into my habit of using my academic training to resolve it.
No apology needed Clyde, your comment was fine!
I wanted to read this twice. Ever since I read “Four Agreements” and watched the movie “Revolver” by Guy Ritchie…which is about this issue…..I have been intrigued about why that wussy conscious mind would be such an enemy. This whole subject is a mind blower. thanks for writing this….I’ll be watching for future writings.
The Four Agreements is an amazing book!
Let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water Rob, I do want my dentist, doctor and accountant using the analytical part of their brain and not to be free forming on me ;-)
BTW< really like Guy Ritchie but never heard of Revolver, going to check it out, thanks!
Great article. Excellent advice for following something like a career or life path.
A caveat is that listening to one’s gut may not be the best thing to do if one has mental illness, and many people do. As many in 1 in 100 ppl (I think men actually) may be psychotic too. So, I’m not that comfortable giving advice, without constraints of not acting aggressively, to acting on one’s gut.
Yeh that’s true. It really is difficult when writing this type of materail to cover every base like that Maria. Otherwise every post would be a stream of “this might not work if you are a Yak farmer in Southern Mongolia with a sensitivity to Brussles sprouts” kinda thing.
So I have to generalize and trust people get the message and are sensible about it.
Valid point though.
Hi Tim,
Good post. I remember when I don’t listen to my intuition and the outcome turns out worse. Listening to my gut instinct is a powerful lesson that everyone should learn because it really is right most of the time!
It sure is, but many people still resist it.
Thanks for the book suggestion by David Rock. Gladwell’s I knew. This topic ties in well with Spent Geoffrey Miller. Evolutionary psych is some awesome stuff.
Rocks’s is my favorite self development type of book of all time. I LOVE Blink, but Your Brain At Work is even better.
Tim, This was fascinating and illuminating. I loved the humor you pepper throughout. We put so much value on the pre-frontal cortex. It’s humorous to see it compared to the spare change in your pocket.
It’s also a bit frightening when you think how much store we put in it Sandra!
I think the more our world evolves, the more we lose touch with our authentic self and our brains really are struggling to keep up.
I’ve spent way too much time in academic/left-brained pursuits, but lately I’ve been on the lookout for gut feelings and intuition, and following them whenever I can. It seems like the more attention I pay to them, the easier they are to find. It’s certainly a lot more fun than listening to my wussing out impulses! :)
Thanks for the recommendation on Blink. I just read Your Brain At Work and loved it, so I’ll be eager to check this one out, too.
“t seems like the more attention I pay to them, the easier they are to find”
Exactly!