
Why You Make Poor Decisions
A couple of weeks ago on evening after eating dinner my wife asked me if I wanted to try out one of her fancy new tooth picks. In the great scheme of things toothpicks are not the kind of thing to get me fired up and as I was likely to be flossing later on, the spinach could stay where it was and I politely declined.
She didn’t want to let it lie though and kept pestering me to check them out. Finally and obviously exasperated by my lack of compliance she said;
“Well, Zoe Ball raves over them”
“Oh, ok I’ll give them a go then” I replied.
I pulled the top off one and started to play about with it was surprised just how good it was. It was more like a mini-toothbrush than a toothpick. It had little brushes on the end to really clean in between the gaps and it felt surprisingly pleasant.
Fascinated though I feel sure you are with my story of after dinner dentistry, this post isn’t really about toothpicks or eve Zoe Ball for that matter.
It is however, about the completely irrational thinking we all from time to time to help us make decisions. Often that irrationality has no real consequences, but at other times it can leave us shaking our heads and thinking;
“What the hell was I thinking?”
As far as I know Zoe Ball is not a trained dentist nor a dental technician. In fact I’m fairly sure she has no medical background whatsoever. However, she is a very well known TV Presenter and radio DJ and is married to musician/DJ Norman Cook (Fat Boy Slim).
She is also seen as an expert in her field and at the very top of her professions and that is the key to my bizarre decision making process.
I was a victim of the Halo Effect.
The Halo Effect is a cognitive bias that leads us to believe somebody’s expertise in one area naturally spills over to other areas of their life, even though there is no information to support that belief.
That and the desire to be like people we admire, are the main reasons advertisers pay huge amounts of money for the privilege of shoving a picture of a superstar next to their product.
They know that the Halo effect will make it more likely people will then want to buy that product no matter how tenuous the connection is.
Tiger Woods is a great golfer but is he really an expert on watches? Captain Kirk did indeed go where no man has been before, but does that really make William Shatner qualified to tell me who to book my vacation with? And does the fact that John McEnroe used to be a great tennis player that shouted a lot mean I should want to hire a car from the same rental company as he uses?
Of course the answer to all those questions is ‘No’ but in some respect that doesn’t matter.
Cognitive biases are working for the large part at a unconscious level, so if you don’t take a step back and remind yourself before you make a decision they will often make it for you.
Cognitive biases do have a positive intent though, they allow us to make decisions quickly (and for the most part accurately enough) without having to assess mountains of data every time.
On the other hand, they can be responsible for you making some terrible decisions seemingly on automatic pilot, and possibly the biggest culprit is social proof.
Social Proof or Herding
One of the most powerful behavioral forces you can be subjected to is that of social proof, or as it is also known, herding. It influences hundreds of millions of people everyday in all sorts of situations and is used by all of us at times to short-cut the decision making process.
Imagine you are in a town you don’t know and fancy something to eat. As you walk down the street you spot two restaurants on opposite sides of the road. On closer inspection you see they serve similar food at a similar price. However, one is full to bursting and the other one empty.
All things being equal you’re almost certainly going to opt for the busy restaurant and this may be a case where you are right to do so. Although not necessarily. There may be other factors you are completely unaware of and that would be redundant in your decision making process if you knew of them.
It could be a large birthday party and all the people are together and have had the evening booked for months. Maybe there is a live band due to play and you really don’t even like live music.
Or perhaps it is social proof that got so full in the first place?
The first diners of the evening were doing what you were doing, but they had two completely empty restaurants to chose from. They eventually settled on the one that was on their side of the road.
Shortly after another couple walk past looking for somewhere to eat. Rather than sitting on their own they opt to join the people already eating. And so social proof is on the march for no other reason than some people couldn’t be arsed to cross the road..
Shortly after the death of Princess Diana, the UK went into social proof overdrive in a manner like I had never experienced before, nor since.
At the time I had a record store and we had immense pressure put on us by town officials to close on the day of the funeral. We resisted because none of us had any desire to watch the funeral, but as sign after sign went up on store windows round the town saying:
“We will be closed as a mark of respect for the funeral of Lady Diana”
It became evident we were the only store without such a declaration and so we buckled to social proof.
And this is where the real reason for the power of social proof kicks in.
You want to be accepted. You want to be part of a tribe, or even many tribes.
If you’re a huge Apple fan, the reason you have to buy the new iPhone on the day of release is because if you don’t you’re on the outside looking in, and that doesn’t feel good.
There’s no logical reason to getting a piece of new technology on the day it is shipped. In fact quite the reverse, there are some excellent arguments for holding back until they iron the inevitable bugs out
But logical arguments don’t matter to the Mac Boy or Girl. If they don’t get the phone immediately they are out of the new tribe.
And that feels threatening in exactly the same way as it would have done 20,000 years ago if you’d thought your place in your tribe, and therefore your life, was under threat.
The social proof surrounding Princess Diana’s death didn’t stop after the funeral either. When Sir Elton John released his new version of Candle in the Wind it went what I can only describe as fucking ballistic.
An average #1 record for use would shift between 30 and 70 units depending on the genre. The most we’d ever sold on the day of release was just over 100 for a Prodigy release.
To say everybody and their dog wanted a copy of Candle In The Wind was an understatement, because their dogs buddies wanted copies too.
We placed an order for 300 units and sold the lot on the first morning. At one stage my partner was stood on the counter trying to calm angry customers down as they were jostling each other to get to the now empty boxes.
Can you believe that in retrospect? People were pushing and jostling each other as well as aiming abuse at us (after we’d sold out) just because of a CD single.
That is the massive power of social proof and it’s ability to make the most reasonable people act unreasonably.
It was social proof that drove the sale of cabbage patch dolls and pet rocks. Social proof was one of the reasons why so many normally conservative mortgage brokers thought selling sub-primes was less risky than it turned out to be.
And social proof is why most bigger blogs show you their RSS subscriber count. The theory being the bigger the number the more value you will place on their material and thus the more likely you are to subscribe.
Can you think of any decisions you have made that you now realize were based upon social proof?
Most people I ask this question claim they’re never caught out by it. A secret for you. Everybody gets caught up in social proof from time to time.
So come on fess up, did you really buy some M C Hammer pants or stand in line at midnight to grab your copy of Titanic on video, or do you even possess a copy of Candle in the Wind that you haven’t played since the week you bought it?
In the next post I’ll conclude this look at cognitive biases with a run down of some of the other ones you possess that can adversely effect your decision making process if you’re not aware of them.
Oh and by the way, I now have almost 5.6 billion subscribers to my newsletter. Don’t miss out on being one of the uber-cool kids, sign up now . In Decembers edition I’ll be dishing out some free stuff just to sweeten the deal.
Hi Tim,
A great piece (and I’m looking forward to reading your other pieces on poor decision-making right now).
I’ve been thinking a lot about human nature lately, and you managed to touch on two important subjects: 1) We do everything with good intent and 2) Our cognitive biases help us make quick decisions.
I think social proof is a rational measure if others behaved and decided rationally. Democracy only functions properly when people are well educated, but falls apart when people have absolutely no clue what rational thought is and how to evaluate news items.
The halo effect was a sensible approach when “celebrities” were polymaths, scholars and wise men celebrated for their intelligence and insight.
Cognitive biases do assist in decision-making, but we really do need to be aware of how they work and how to refine them before we can rely on them.
Hi Tim,
You brought back some memories in this post. I rememeber getting that Elton John single when it came out. Of course, I have no idea where it is now. When I was in Paris last year, I visited the Princess Diana memorial and was flooded with feeling about the tragedy of her death.
I couldn’t agree more about social proof and the Halo Effect. How many times have we visited someone site and subscribed because you saw them ‘everywhere’ and wanted to be part of their following? There are tons of examples of this where people try to be part of the ‘cool group’ who really aren’t doing too much differerent than you. They just network better :-)
Interesting topic and discussion, too.
Karen
Hey Tim!
I’ve pointed out this phenomenon with regards to breast cancer. It seems that wearing a pink ribbon has become a way to say “Yay for women! Cancer is bad!”
Colon cancer is a big killer of both men and women, yet there are not many famous people shouting out their support (or wearing a brown ribbon?)…
I guess most people would rather associate themselves with breasts than with, well, you know.
Saludos,
Paul
I really think it comes down to marketing. The BCA group have done a brilliant job of highlighting their cause.
Both diseases are equally horrible.
And Colon Cancer ribbons are blue.
I stand corrected, Skippy.
As always, I love this post and I have always been a fan:-) It seems to me that you always have the answers to every question in life:-) Thanks for sharing!
I think I may be one or two answers short, but thanks nevertheless!
Great post, Tim!
This, and the mullet comments that followed the post, reminded me of something that happened to me several years ago. From the mid 70’s to the late 80’s, I was in the music biz working with artists like Steve Marriott and Glenn Hughes. At the time I had shoulder length or longer hair.
When I retired from the music biz, I decided to finally cut my hair to the type of cut typically worn by businessmen. I remember getting on an elevator in an office building and having the ‘suit’ next me smile and say hello, a rarity prior to that day. Soon this scenario repeated itself on a regular basis. At the same time, guys with long-hair that used to pass by and give kind of a solidarity nod or greet me in some way now walked by without a word.
It’s funny because, minus the haircut, I was the same guy. But suddenly I was welcome by a new tribe and shunned by another.
Bill
That’s a great example Bill and it doesn’t surprise me one iota. Thanks.
I have to admit, as an introvert who takes pride in his eccentricity, I can’t recall many times falling for social proof. If anything I tend to be motivated NOT to do something when I see a lot of people jumping on the same bandwagon. I guess that makes me more of a “fashionable non-conformist” – which is just another way of letting group behavior influence my actions.
Really good piece though Tim! The halo effect is definitely very prevalent in our world, and so is social proof.
Would you have commented here if nobody else had?
Well, Tim, I am a professional trend buster.
I don’t watch television, don’t own any cell phone, drive a pick-up truck, wear blue jeans that do not have holes in them when I buy them new, put them in the rag box when holes develop, and haven’t a clue who is on top of the music charts.
However… I *do* subscribe to your feed.
DARN! I almost made it!
A strong effort Allan, but alas no cigar!
Hey Tim! I came across your site by googling “life coaching questions”. Your blog 7 Killer Questions came up…and it was great. Thanks! I am new to Life Coaching (recently certified) and am always looking for more questions to ask my clients, that are insightful, intelligent and illicit more than a ‘yes/no’ response. I didn’t expect to be laughing my way through your website! I am even printing out your free eBook “Don’t Ask Stupid Questions” because I was laughing just through the intro! In comment to this post, I’d like to say “Oh, I never do that…” But wouldn’t that just be a big fat lie! The fear of rejection is so powerful that it forces us to become part of the herd without thought….be part of the in crowd. So I’ll fess up…I owned the MC Hammer tape cassette..wish I still knew where it was, maybe it’s worth something by now?! :)
Imagine how good How To Be Rich and Happy is then, because it’s waaaaay better than DASQ ;-)
http://howtoberichandhappy.com/store.html
It’s Hammer Time!!
I confess, I bought a wii because of social proof. After the first couple of months the “shiny” factor wore off and I just left it at a friend’s house where it would get used more.
It reminded me of the “Guppy Study” from Dr. Dugatkin.
Guppies are the first species in which scientists have observed the phenomenon of “mate copying”: A female guppy is much more likely to have the hots for a male guppy if other female guppies like him, too.
Humans behave in much the same way.
Dugatkin conducted a study of 60 men and 74 women who were shown pictures of strangers and asked if they’d like to date them. They were also given information about whether other men and women, respectively, found the strangers attractive.
Unsurprisingly, the male and female subjects both liked attractivepeople,but females weighed the opinions of other females much more highly than the men did.
Women also described the guys they preferred in the pictures as more wealthy, funny and personable – even though they had never met them.
When humans see their peers flock around someone, they may wonder what the fuss is all about
There’s some research like this in Dan Ariely’s new book.
Fascinating stuff and probably explains why I don’t have to beat women off with a pointy stick. It stems back to ONE woman 30 years ago saying she didn’t rate me!
Wow Tim, 5.6 billion already?
I am so glad you did this, because I thought I was going to be hanged for calling social proof a lie a few months back. Some liked it, others thought I was crazy.
Social proof can really get you into that impulsive mode of action, which I find, is not usually a good thing. Cheers!
You are so Thursday Josh, it’s actually now 5.8 billion.
Do you want to post the link I’d like to read it?
Ha! Tim! I burst out laughing just a few seconds ago, remembering this article whilst thinking of a few local “artisan” food enterprises who completely puzzle me with their continued existence as they seem to be producing overpriced mealy hockey pucks. But you know they are local and organic and all those other buzz words so of course they have to be good. And honestly, people already question my food purity so I keep my yap shut.
Although this one time I ran into another lady at the corn in a mainstream supermarket and we both looked all around us before admitting that the farmer’s market corn was consistently awful and usually half rotten. Heh.
I bought some organic Granny Smiths apples recently. They were crap, seriously they were.
Give me the genetically modified, hormone pumped, water sprayed, mechanically recovered, pesticide covered apples any day of the week.
Little bit of toilet humour: on my taskbar it shortens your title to Why You Make Poo… LOL. I obviously need more sleep.
That’ll be part 2.
Zoe Ball? As someone who still remembers her Dad in Playschool, I simply refuse to be influenced by Zoe Ball, great toothpicks or no.
I try hard not to be susceptible to social proofing and be very conscious of all my decisions (and sometimes I learn the hard way) but I will eat a curry at a place full of Indian people.
Yep I remember Johnny too. He was like the uncle I never had and that probably never wanted me.
Hi Tim,
Remember Skidz? The hip-hop type clothing line popular in the 90’s. Yeah, I made a few social proof purchases that wound up as kitchen rags within about a year.
We all want to fit in on some level but if you can temper that need with a little bit of critical thinking it won’t be necessary to consistently fall victim to the Halo Effect.
When you think before you act there’s a good chance you will make a wise decision. Even if you don’t make a wise decision now you have formed the habit of responding instead of reacting to situations.
Thanks for sharing and have a powerful day!
Ryan
I don’t remember Skidz, but I do remember some horrific clothing decisions I made courtesy of social proof, including buying one very flowery shirt after getting into the Stone Roses.
This reminded me of us hounding our mother to buy the We Are the World cassette tape. She HAD to do it for us, LIVES were depending on it. There was clearly a choice to be made and we were going to choose the right one. Plus, Michael Jackson.
I think I’m much better at seeing when other people do it than I do.
One thing I try to do is not retreat back to an echo chamber when some of my beliefs are challenged. I’ve noticed that just makes me far more pigheaded. When I listen to what other people have to say I still might not change my mind, but I’m less likely to dig in my heels and act like a stubborn twit.
You’ll never learn if your immediate response to challenging information is to immediately try to defend your own beliefs rather than see if there is anything to the new stuff.
“You’ll never learn if your immediate response to challenging information is to immediately try to defend your own beliefs rather than see if there is anything to the new stuff.”
Very true!
Which is why I say that people really need to give Air Supply another chance.
I would, but I’m all out of love.
Dammit, I was sure I had you cornered.
I once was almost tempted to get a mullet haircut. Fortunately, a kind friend shot me on the way to the hairdresser’s.
Seriously though. it’s scary to think what herding can accomplish. It’s a really powerful tool and unfortunately we all have access to it. Draw your own conclusions…
Actually I think you HAVE a mullet haircut and that’s why your photo is cropped like that!
I think you’re testing the water before you come out of and admit it.
Strewth! I’ve been found out.
I’ll keep the photo cropped though. I care about your heart etc.
Stop dicking around on here and get that post finished.
Tim, this is so logical and obvious and I feel a bit stupid…yet….it can’t be helped. I want to be part of the cool tribe.
As my mother always said: “If everyone wanted to jump off the bridge, would you do it?”
I’m a big fan of toothpicks.
Best!
Check out this and you’ll be in toothpick heaven ;-)
http://www.amazon.com/DenTek-Easy-Brush-Cleaners-ct/dp/B001AIU6RI